Political Predictions No One Wants To Hear Right Now

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I’m writing these things down because I can’t say them out loud to anyone without scaring or depressing them. I used to post thoughts like this to the socials, but I’ve finally learned better and pulled my support for Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and all that (I do still have automated posts going to LinkedIn for my business connections, but have severely restricted the time I spend there too).

Here’s what I think is going to happen next Tuesday here in the USA:
  • Confusion will reign supreme. This is where our fearful leader is at his most powerful, so that is the environment he will create. And so far his opposition has proven entirely incapable of standing up to this tactic by making sense and fighting back creatively.
  • Victory will be declared by the obvious loser. He’s paid for his victory party on Election Night, and so he’ll have one. By not conceding the challenger to the incumbent is automatically put in the “Sore Loser” position.
  • Fighting will break out in the streets. First in isolated urban pockets, then more and more across the country. Polarized and fearful people fueled by the media dumpsterfire will do nasty things to each other. One side has a reputation for being much nastier than the other, but each incident will draw more people into the fight on both sides.

Over the next few weeks to months, the agreements the Administration has made with state legislatures (like in Wisconsin) will be used to override the popular vote AND the Electoral College. Enough uncertainty will be introduced that several states are taken off the board. As in 2000, the US President will be Selected by the Supreme Court, not Elected in the usual way. And with our newly ramrodded 6-3 situation, we can clearly see which way that’s gonna go.

There is a slim chance that the Trumpublicans will see this as their final moment to bail, taking their party back from the man they hitched their wagons to in 2016. But if that was going to happen, it would have happened already. He’s been pruning their spines for this moment for some time.

There is an even slimmer chance that the man himself can call it, declaring “I won but I don’t want to play with these meanies anymore” and pillaging what’s left of our government for a few months before pardoning himself for all past and future misdeeds, and then committing his full-time attention to his new media channel. But he probably doesn’t know this is his best long term play.

There is ZERO chance for a free and fair election. That option was destroyed long ago. On purpose, and as the world watched.

None of this is unexpected. Anyone who steps back from the media for a minute and looks at the structure of what’s been happening around here for a long time can see it. The drama and theater of it all are easy to get caught up in, I get it. But please don’t. Your life will not be any better for the high-speed adrenaline ride, quite the opposite.

Yes, I still vote every chance I get, and encourage everyone to do so as well. But I know better than to expect that it will matter. I voted (by mail, the only way I can ever do it here where I live!), and I do so as a personal affirmation, and on the off chance it will count. Every once in a while it does.

This time, at the national level at least, I’m quite sure it won’t.

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  1. So. Confusion: yes, but limited. Victory declared by the loser: of course, but to no avail. Fighting in the streets: nothing significant. President to be selected by SCOTUS? Looking unlikely. Free and fair election? Depends somewhat on your definition. It was credibly deemed the most secure in US history but of course the GOP did all they could to prevent Democratic-leaning populations from voting at all. So not very fair but a lot better than it might have been. Have these outcomes (admittedly not yet final) shifted your estimation of the American public?

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